This analysis was prepared by Venable, LLP on behalf of AACOM.
January 8th, 2024
The House and Senate are both in session this week.
Congress returns this week facing a number of deadlines in the early months of 2024 to complete unfinished 2023 business. Federal funding, perhaps including a national security supplemental addressing needs in Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and at the U.S-Mexico Southern Border, is likely the first major item of business. House and Senate leaders cut a deal yesterday on topline spending numbers for FY24, possibly averting a government shutdown, and while negotiators on the border continue to say that progress has been made, the major breakthroughs that would be needed to tackle the supplemental have not come to fruition. Here is where we see things standing:
Topline Appropriations Deal Struck. Last night, the Speaker announced that he had cut a deal with Leader Schumer on topline numbers to allow Congress to finish the FY24 appropriations process. As a reminder, there are 9 legislative days (until January 19th) to prevent a partial government shutdown, which is still possible even with the deal struck yesterday. Speaker Johnson has signaled he will not bring further stop-gap spending bills to the floor so absent passage of the deal by Jan. 19, the first tier of the existing continuing resolution (which funds agencies and programs within the following appropriations jurisdictions: Agriculture; Energy and Water; Military Construction and Veterans Affairs; and Transportation and Housing and Urban Development) will lapse, resulting in a shutdown of the affected programs.
Hope is fading for a border deal – and Ukraine aid as well. Republican leaders in both chambers have tied support for the Biden Administration’s $106 billion national security supplemental to the inclusion of changes to policies at the Southern Border. A bipartisan group of senators has continued negotiating with the administration over the break, but a deal remains elusive. Many House Republicans are opposed to any border policy, some are opposed to any additional Ukraine funding (short of their hardline H.R. 2 border security package), and a number of Democrats, particularly within the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, are opposed to the inclusion of border security policy in a foreign aid package. Combined with the pressure of a potential government shutdown, there will be considerable pressure on both sides to just move forward with keeping the government open. Last week, the Speaker indicated to some members of the House Republican Conference that he may try and negotiate with the President directly on border security policy, which could produce positive momentum for the product.
Congress has appropriated over $100 billion in Ukrainian aid since February 2022, and an NBC poll conducted in November showed that only 35% of registered Republicans supported additional aid to Ukraine. We are being told that any additional aid package, regardless of enhanced border security measures, will be a ‘tough sell’ to the House Republican Conference.
The House will struggle to legislate. With the resignation of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the removal of former Rep. George Santos, and the upcoming resignation of Congressman Bill Johnson at the end of the month, the Republicans will be left with 219 members. The extremely slim majority for Republicans in the House will make it even more difficult for them to move substantial bills in 2024. We can expect a very active suspension calendar (which requires 2/3 of the House to pass legislation) along with some Republican messaging bills crafted to help candidates in the November election.
Can the House pass a budget? The House is currently in the process of working on a Budget Resolution, which may be released in early 2024. Any budget put forth by the House will be difficult to pass, but the goal with this exercise is to try and rally the House Republican Conference around top-line spending levels and policy proposals.
FISA Reauthorization will be a fight. The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) authorization expires on April 19th and its reauthorization will be a major bipartisan fight in the House. In December, Speaker Johnson agreed to put competing FISA Reauthorizations on the floor, essentially setting up a “king of the hill” strategy that would have allowed whichever bill got more votes to proceed. This was ultimately scrapped for an upcoming vote on a clear reauthorization of the program. Some Democrats and Republicans want to see reforms to Section 702, which allows for warrantless surveillance of foreign nationals living outside the U.S. and the “incidental” collection of Americans who have come in contact with them.
Farm Bill movement in ‘24? Farm Bill discussions could gain traction in the House during the first quarter of 2024. House Agriculture Chairman GT Thompson and the House Agriculture Committee are currently working with CBO to get specific provisions scored. The Farm Bill faces an uphill climb in the House once again due to entitlement provisions and agricultural subsidies, but Congress has until the end of September to act.
Data Privacy and A.I. remain hot topics. Data privacy, artificial intelligence (AI), and other tech-related issues are also garnering attention in the House, with numerous briefings being had to educate members. House Energy and Commerce Chair McMorris Rodgers is still committed to moving data privacy legislation through the Committee, even though support for the ADPPA has waned. The Committee may focus on protecting kids’ data and cracking down on China-based e-commerce companies.
Regarding AI, the Senate, particularly Leader Schumer, is driving much of the discussion. It is still to be determined if legislation is drafted on the issue, but the House has had internal briefings and discussions around general policy options moving forward.
Financial Services priorities with a lame duck Chairman. We believe that Chairman McHenry, who announced that he will be retiring at the end of 2024, will be highly motivated to score some legislative wins before he leaves. Top of list for him will be pushing trying to pass the bipartisan Financial Innovation and Technology Act, which would create a regulated market structure for digital assets. We also expect that McHenry will remain highly focused on SEC regulatory overreach, including the SEC’s efforts to promulgate a rule around disclosing environmental risks and its “regulation by enforcement” of the crypto industry.
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown has stated that he is focused on getting two bipartisan priorities across the finish line in early 2024, the RECOUP Act and the FEND Off Fentanyl Act. He also is planning to build on his committee’s work on affordable housing, increased competition with China, and stopping illicit financing of terrorism. Finally, the Committee will prioritize corporate fraud and abuse regarding payday lending, crypto, and price gauging. Senate Leader Schumer has also stated a priority of his will be to get the SAFER Banking Act, marijuana banking legislation advanced by the Banking Committee, across the finish line.
Ways and Means Focused on Tax. The Ways and Means Committee cleared the American Families and Jobs Act in June, which addressed some of the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). In 2024, we can expect House Republicans to continue to push the importance of extending TCJA tax provisions, increasing the deduction for middle class families, and offsetting these costs with various EV and ‘clean energy’ credits.
Individual rates set forth by the TCJA expire at the end of 2025. Moving into 2025, both parties will have to deal with a looming ‘tax increase’.
Expect any discussions around taxes to include a debate over state and local tax deductions (SALT). Republicans and Democrats in states like New York and California will continue to plead their case to reinstate SALT, but it is unlikely to be included in any possible tax package.
Congress will tout health care transparency while addressing pressing issues. With providers facing cuts to Medicare payments under the physician fee schedule (PFS) at the end of 2023, the House Energy and Commerce Committee (E&C) is focused on mitigating these cuts while ensuring certainty for physicians in the future. Early in 2024, we should see a strong push by the Energy and Commerce Committee to move bills to the floor that passed out of the Committee by unanimous consent.
Lawmakers in both chambers hope to move the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act reauthorization, which is stalled in both the House and Senate. It is likely the Senate will need to move first. Several telehealth policies authorized during the COVID-19 pandemic are set to terminate at the end of 2024, so we can expect E&C to markup legislation to permanently codify these provisions.
Both Republicans and Democrats on the Energy and Commerce Committee acknowledged the devastating impact drug shortages are having on patients across the nation and bipartisan work to find a solution will continue in 2024. Chair McMorris Rodgers has circulated a discussion draft titled the Stop Drug Shortages Act.
The Lower Costs, More Transparency Act passed the House in 2023 and includes provisions on transparency, site neutral payment changes, and pharmacy benefit manager reform. The Senate has looked at many of the same issues but has not put together a comprehensive bill yet despite pressure from interest groups.
Finally, there is strong bipartisan consensus in Congress that overdoses from fentanyl and Xylazine need to be addressed. We should see a reauthorization of the SUPPORT Act in 2024 to address this crisis.
IMPORTANT DATES
January 15th - Iowa Caucuses (GOP).
January 19th - Four spending bills expire (Agriculture, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, Energy and Water, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs).
January 23rd – New Hampshire Primary.
February 2nd- Remaining eight spending bills expire.
February 24th – South Carolina Primary.
March 5th – Super Tuesday.
March 8th- FAA extension expires.
April 19th- FISA extension expires.
July 15th – 18th – Republican Convention.
August 19th – 22nd – Democratic Convention.
September 30th- Farm Bill extension expires.
SENATE SCHEDULE – MONDAY, JANUARY 8TH
The Senate will convene at 3:00pm today.
The Senate will then resume consideration of Executive Calendar #376, John A. Kazen, of Texas, to be United States District Judge for the Southern District of Texas. At approx. 5:30pm the Senate will vote on the motion to invoke cloture on the Kazen nomination.
Monday, January 8th at approx. 5:30pm – 1 roll call vote:
- Motion to invoke cloture on Executive Calendar #376 John A. Kazen, of Texas, to be United States District Judge for the Southern District of Texas
The following pending cloture motions will ripen at 5:30pm on Monday, January 8, 2024:
- Executive Calendar #376 John A. Kazen, of Texas, to be United States District Judge for the Southern District of Texas
- Executive Calendar #117 Jose Javier Rodriguez, of Florida, to be an Assistant Secretary of Labor
- Executive Calendar #142 Joseph Goffman, of Pennsylvania, to be an Assistant Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency
- Executive Calendar #174 S. Kato Crews, of Colorado, to be United States District Judge for the District of Colorado
- Executive Calendar #311 Karoline Mehalchick, of Pennsylvania, to be United States District Judge for the Middle District of Pennsylvania
HOUSE SCHEDULE
WEEK OF JANUARY 8TH
MONDAY, JANUARY 8TH
The House is not in session.
TUESDAY, JANUARY 9TH
On Tuesday, the House will convene for the start of the Second Session of the 118th Congress with a recorded vote on the quorum call at 6:30 p.m.
Establishing a Quorum in the House of Representatives for the Second Session of the 118th Congress
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 10TH
On Wednesday, the House will meet at 10:00 a.m. for morning hour and noon for legislative business.
Legislation Considered Under Suspension of the Rules:
H.R. 540 – Taiwan Non-Discrimination Act of 2023, as amended (Sponsored by Rep. Kim (CA) / Financial Services Committee)
H.R. 803 – PROTECT Taiwan Act, as amended (Sponsored by Rep. Lucas / Financial Services Committee)
H.R. 839 – China Exchange Rate Transparency Act of 2023, as amended (Sponsored by Rep. Meuser / Financial Services Committee)
H.R. 4768 – No Russian Agriculture Act, as amended (Sponsored by Rep. Waters / Financial Services Committee)
H.R. 6370 – OFAC Licensure for Investigators Act, as amended (Sponsored by Rep. Beatty / Financial Services Committee)
Legislation Considered Pursuant to a Rule:
S.J. Res. 38 – A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Federal Highway Administration relating to "Waiver of Buy America Requirements for Electric Vehicle Chargers” (Sponsored by Sen. Rubio / Transportation and Infrastructure Committee)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 11TH
On Thursday, the House will meet at 10:00 a.m. for morning hour and noon for legislative business.
Legislation Considered Pursuant to a Rule:
H.R. 788 – Stop Settlement Slush Funds Act of 2023 (Sponsored by Rep. Gooden / Judiciary Committee)
FRIDAY, JANUARY 12TH
On Friday, the House will meet at 9:00 a.m. for legislative business. Last votes expected no later than 3:00 p.m.
Legislation Considered Pursuant to a Rule:
H.J. Res. 98 – Providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the National Labor Relations Board relating to "Standard for Determining Joint Employer Status" (Sponsored by Rep. James / Education and the Workforce Committee)
COMMITTEE SCHEDULES
SENATE
TUESDAY, JANUARY 9TH
Committee on Intelligence to receive a closed briefing on certain intelligence matters at 2:30 PM.
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 10TH
Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs hearing on harnessing AI to improve government services and customer experience at 10:00 AM.
Committee on Budget hearing on investing in the future, focusing on safeguarding municipal bonds from climate risk at 10:00 AM.
Subcommittee on Privacy, Technology, and the Law (Committee on Judiciary) hearing on A.I. and the future of journalism at 2:00 PM.
Committee on Intelligence to receive a closed briefing on certain intelligence matters at 2:30 PM.
THURSDAY, JANUARY 11TH
Committee on Energy and Natural Resources hearing on federal electric vehicle incentives including the federal government's role in fostering reliable and resilient electric vehicle supply chains at 10:00 AM.
Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hearing on stopping the flow of fentanyl, focusing on public awareness and legislative solutions at 10:00 AM.
HOUSE
TUESDAY, JANUARY 9TH
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 10TH
Committee on Homeland Security hearing on "Havoc in the Heartland: How Secretary Mayorkas’ Failed Leadership Has Impacted the States" at 10:00 AM.
Subcommittee on Environment, Manufacturing, and Critical Materials (Committee on Energy and Commerce) hearing on "Protecting Clean American Energy Production and Jobs by Stopping EPA’s Overreach" at 10:00 AM.
Subcommittee on Capital Markets (Committee on Financial Services) hearing on Examining the DOL Fiduciary Rule: Implications for Retirement Savings and Access at 10:00 AM.
Committee on Oversight and Accountability hearing on 1) H.Res. _____, Recommending that the House of Representatives find Robert Hunter Biden in contempt of Congress for refusal to comply with a subpoena duly issued by the Committee on Oversight and Accountability at 10:00 AM.
Committee on the Judiciary hearing on Report Recommending that the House of Representatives Cite Robert Hunter Biden for Contempt of Congress at 10:00 AM.
Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations (Committee on Natural Resources) hearing on National Park Service's Deferred Maintenance Backlog: Perspectives from the Government Accountability Office and the Inspector General at 10:15 AM.
Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion (Committee on Financial Services) hearing on Regulatory Whiplash: Examining the Impact of FSOC’s Ever-changing Designation Framework on Innovation at 2:00 PM.
THURSDAY, JANUARY 11TH
Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources (Committee on Natural Resources) hearing on Examining the Biden Administration’s Limits on Access to the OCS: Impacts on Consumers, States, and Operators at 10:00 AM.
Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Accountability (Committee on Homeland Security) hearing on Exploitation and Enforcement Part II: Improving Enforcement in Countering Uyghur Forced Labor at 10:00 AM.
Committee on Veterans' Affairs Business Meeting at 10:00 AM.
Committee on Small Business hearing on Crime on the Rise: How Lawlessness is Impacting Main Street America at 10:00 AM.
Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment (Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure) hearing on Proposals for a Water Resources Development Act of 2024: Members’ Day Hearing at 10:00 AM.
Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement (Committee on the Judiciary) hearing on The Impact of Illegal Immigration on Social Services at 10:00 AM.
Committee on Financial Services hearing on Oversight of the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Federal Housing Administration at 10:00 AM.
Subcommittee on Communications and Technology (Committee on Energy and Commerce) hearing on Safeguarding Americans' Communications: Strengthening Cybersecurity in a Digital Era at 10:00 AM.
Subcommittee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs (Committee on Oversight and Accountability) hearing on The Risks of Progressive Ideologies in the U.S. Military at 10:00 AM.
Committee on Veterans' Affairs hearing on Rural Access: Is VA Meeting All Veterans Where They Live? at 10:15 AM.
Subcommittee on Health, Employment, Labor, and Pensions (Committee on Education and the Workforce) hearing on Lowering Costs and Increasing Access to Health Care with Employer-Driven Innovation at 10:15 AM.
Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia (Committee on Foreign Affairs) hearing on Examining the Biden Administration’s Afghanistan Policy Since the U.S. Withdrawal: Part II at 2:00 PM.